Shareholder: The company’s current operations are time-proven successes. The move into food services may siphon off funds needed by these other operations. Also, the food service industry is volatile, with a higher inherent risk than with, for instance, pharmaceuticals, another area into which the company has considered expanding.

Summary

Current operations are successful. Moving into food services may take away funds needed by other operations. Moreover, the food service industry is volatile and has a higher risk than pharmaceuticals. The company has considered expanding into pharmaceuticals.

Strongly Supported Conclusions

Moving into food services would be a greater risk for the company compared to moving into pharmaceuticals.

A
The company’s present operations require increased funding.

This answer is unsupported. The shareholder tells us that current operations are a success.

B
Investment into pharmaceuticals would not siphon off money from other operations.

This answer is unsupported. We don’t know from the stimulus whether pharmaceuticals would not require funds to be taken from other operations. We know that expansion into food services would, but this does not imply that pharmaceuticals would not.

C
The company will lose money as it expands into the food service industry.

This answer is unsupported. We don’t know from the stimulus whether the company would for a fact lose money. We only know that this move is risker than a move into pharmaceuticals.

D
Only if the company expands its operations into pharmaceuticals are increased profits possible.

This answer is unsupported. We don’t know from the stimulus whether expansion into pharmaceuticals is a necessary condition for the company to increase their profits.

E
The company has a greater chance of losing money in food services than in pharmaceuticals.

This answer is strongly supported. We know from the stimulus that food service is volatile and risker than moving into pharmaceuticals. Therefore, since it is a risker expansion, food service represents a greater chance of losing money.


11 comments

Farmer: In the long run, it is counterproductive for farmers to use insecticides. Because insects’ resistance to insecticides increases with insecticide use, farmers have to use greater and greater amounts of costly insecticides to control insect pests.

Summarize Argument: Causal Explanation
Using insecticides over a long period is more harmful to farmers than helpful. As farmers use insecticides, insects gradually develop resistance, so farmers have to use larger and more costly amounts to keep controlling pests, making the practice less productive in the long run.

Identify Argument Part
The stimulus text refers to an intermediary conclusion, also called a “subsidiary conclusion” or “major premise.” The claim that “insects' resistance to insecticides increases with insecticide use," supports the stimulus text because it explains why farmers must use larger amounts of insecticides to control pests. The stimulus text supports the main conclusion by showing why it is counterproductive for farmers to use insecticides in the long run—because, over time, farmers need more expensive insecticides to achieve the same results.

A
It is the argument’s main conclusion, but not its only conclusion.
The stimulus text is not the argument’s main conclusion. It is a sub-conclusion that supports the main conclusion: “In the long run, it is counterproductive for farmers to use insecticides,” by explaining why long-term pesticide use is not productive.
B
It is a claim for which a causal explanation is provided and which itself is used as direct support for the argument’s only conclusion.
This labels the stimulus text as a sub-conclusion. The claim “insects’ resistance to insecticides increases with insecticide use” is a causal explanation (cause: insecticide; effect: greater resistance), supporting the stimulus text, which—in turn—supports the main conclusion.
C
It is the argument’s only conclusion.
The stimulus text is not the argument’s only conclusion. It is a sub-conclusion that supports the main conclusion: “In the long run, it is counterproductive for farmers to use insecticides,” by explaining why long-term pesticide use is unproductive.
D
It is a claim that is used as direct support for an intermediary conclusion, which in turn is used as direct support for the argument’s main conclusion.
The stimulus text doesn’t support an intermediary conclusion. It supports the main conclusion that “in the long run, it is counterproductive for farmers to use insecticides,” by explaining why long-term pesticide use is unproductive.
E
It identifies a phenomenon for which the argument’s main conclusion offers a causal explanation.
This incorrectly labels the stimulus text as context. The main conclusion does not explain the stimulus text. Instead, the stimulus text explains the main conclusion by showing why long-term pesticide use is unproductive.

29 comments

Over 40,000 lead seals from the early Byzantine Empire remain today. Apart from the rare cases where the seal authenticated a document of special importance, most seals had served their purpose when the document was opened. Lead was not expensive, but it was not free: most lead seals would have been recast once they had served their purpose. Thus the number of early Byzantine documents sealed in such a fashion must have been many times the number of remaining lead seals.

Summarize Argument
The author concludes that the number of early Byzantine documents sealed using a lead seal must have been much more than 40,000. This is based on the fact that there are about 40,000 lead seals remaining today. In addition, most seals had served their purpose when the document was opened. And, once a seal had served its purpose, it would have been recast.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that many documents that were sealed by a lead seal were actually opened. (This overlooks the possibility that the 40,000 lead seals remaining happened to be fixed to the only documents that were written during early Byzantine times and those documents happened to never be opened.)

A
Most of the lead seals produced during the early Byzantine Empire were affixed to documents that were then opened during that period.
This confirms that a large portion of lead seals were on documents that were opened. This would lead to those lead seals being recast, which would suggest the remaining lead seals that were not recast are only a small proportion of the overall lead seals that were created.
B
Most of the lead seals produced during the early Byzantine Empire were affixed to documents that have since been destroyed.
We care about whether the documents were opened, because that would lead to seals being recast. Whether the documents were destroyed doesn’t tell us whether the documents were opened.
C
The amount of lead available for seals in the early Byzantine Empire was much greater than the amount of lead that remains in the seals today.
This tells us there was a lot of lead available for seals in the early Byzantine Empire compared to the lead remaining today. But were many more seals than what remain today actually created during the early Byzantine Empire? (C) doesn’t suggest many more seals were created.
D
During the time of the early Byzantine Empire there were at most 40,000 documents of enough importance to prevent the removing and recycling of the seal.
Placing a limit on the number of documents that would have prevented recycling of the seal doesn’t support the author’s conclusion. In fact, if it were possible for 1 million documents that had seals that wouldn’t have been recycled, that would support the author’s conclusion.
E
During the time of the early Byzantine Empire there were fewer than 40,000 seals affixed to documents at any given time.
The number of seals that were used simultaneously has no clear impact. The issue is the total number of documents that were sealed during the early Byzantine period; whether they were sealed at a given point in time isn’t relevant.

64 comments

Ecologist: Without the intervention of conservationists, squirrel monkeys will become extinct. But they will survive if large tracts of second-growth forest habitat are preserved for them. Squirrel monkeys flourish in second-growth forest because of the plentiful supply of their favorite insects and fruit.

Summary

First sentence - “Without” is used just like “unless” here, so it means:

If there is NO intervention of conservationists → squirrel monkeys extinct

Second sentence - “If” introduces the sufficient condition:

Tracts of second-growth forest preserved → squirrel monkeys NOT extinct

The last sentence tells us why squirrel monkeys “flourish” in second-growth forest. But it is not a conditional and does not connect to the conditionals in the first two sentences.

Very Strongly Supported Conclusions

We can connect the first two sentences, although you need to do the contrapositive of one or the other to see the connection:

If there is NO intervention of conservationists → squirrel monkeys extinct → tracts of second-growth forest NOT preserved

OR

If tracts of second-growth forest preserved → squirrel monkeys NOT extinct → there was intervention of conservationists

A
No habitat other than second-growth forest contains plentiful supplies of squirrel monkeys’ favorite insects and fruit.

Not supported. We know that second growth forests have a lot of the favorite insects and fruit. This doesn’t imply that other habitats don’t have these things.

B
At least some of the conservationists who intervene to help the squirrel monkeys survive will do so by preserving second-growth forest habitat for the monkeys.

If the monkeys survive, we know that second-growth forests have been preserved. And we know that this implies the conservationists intervened. But we don’t know exactly *how* the conservationists intervened. What they did might be unrelated to the forests. The forests were preserved, sure; but we don’t know that the conservationists helped to preserve the forests.

C
Without plentiful supplies of their favorite insects and fruit, squirrel monkeys will become extinct.

We know that without the intervention of conservationists, the monkeys will go extinct. But we have no idea whether lack of favorite fruits and insects will lead to extinction. The monkeys can “flourish” because of those fruits and insects; but this doesn’t imply that without those things, the monkeys will die.

D
If conservationists intervene to help squirrel monkeys survive, then the squirrel monkeys will not become extinct.

This confuses sufficient and necessary conditions. We know that if conservationists DON’T intervene, the monkeys will go extinct. This does not imply that if conservationists DO intervene, that the monkeys will survive.

E
Without the intervention of conservationists, large tracts of second-growth forest habitat will not be preserved for squirrel monkeys.

(E) is supported by the connection between the first two sentences:

If there is NO intervention of conservationists → squirrel monkeys extinct → tracts of second-growth forest NOT preserved


31 comments

The writing styles in works of high literary quality are not well suited to the avoidance of misinterpretation. For this reason, the writing in judicial decisions, which are primarily intended as determinations of law, is rarely of high literary quality. However, it is not uncommon to find writing of high literary quality in dissenting opinions, which are sometimes included in written decisions in cases heard by a panel of judges.

"Surprising" Phenomenon
Judicial decisions are rarely of high literary quality, yet dissenting opinions occasionally are of high literary quality.

Objective
The right answer will be a hypothesis that explains why dissenting opinions are written in a different way than are judicial decisions. High literary quality can lead to misinterpretations, so it makes sense why judicial decisions aren’t written that way. We need to know why dissenters sometimes write opinions of high literary quality despite the chance their words are misinterpreted.

A
It is not uncommon for more than one judge to have an influence on the way a dissenting opinion is written.
Are dissenting opinions influenced by multiple judges more likely to be of high literary quality? Who knows. This doesn’t tell us.
B
Unlike literary works, legal opinions rely heavily on the use of technical terminology.
This doesn’t resolve the discrepancy between judicial decisions and dissenting opinions. We need to know why the latter are sometimes of high literary quality.
C
The law is not to any great extent determined by dissenting opinions.
Since the law isn’t determined by dissenting opinions, authors of such opinions aren’t concerned about misinterpretation. They’re free to write however they like, which sometimes leads to high literary quality.
D
Judges spend much more time reading judicial decisions than reading works of high literary quality.
This doesn’t explain why dissenting opinions are sometimes of high literary quality. We don’t care what the judges usually read.
E
Judicial decisions issued by panels of judges are likely to be more widely read than are judicial decisions issued by a single judge who hears a case alone.
We’re interested in why dissenting opinions are sometimes of high literary quality. How widely-read judicial decisions are doesn’t clear anything up, since we don’t know the affect that being widely-read has on a judicial decision.

12 comments

Executive: We recently ran a set of advertisements in the print version of a travel magazine and on that magazine’s website. We were unable to get any direct information about consumer response to the print ads. However, we found that consumer response to the ads on the website was much more limited than is typical for website ads. We concluded that consumer response to the print ads was probably below par as well.

Summarize Argument
The executive concludes that consumers’ response to a recent run of print ads in a magazine was probably below the average response to print ads. In support, the executive points out that the consumer response to digital ads on the magazine’s website was below the average response to digital ads.

Describe Method of Reasoning
The executive draws an analogy between two similar cases (print ads and digital ads) to justify drawing conclusions about one based on evidence from the other. This is how the executive comes to a conclusion about the response to the print ads based on response statistics from the digital ads.

A
bases a prediction of the intensity of a phenomenon on information about the intensity of that phenomenon’s cause
The executive doesn’t make predictions based on the cause of a phenomenon. There’s no discussion at all about the “intensity” of whatever might have caused a poor response to the ads.
B
uses information about the typical frequency of events of a general kind to draw a conclusion about the probability of a particular event of that kind
The executive doesn’t draw conclusions about a particular event based on the typical event of that kind. The executive’s conclusion about a particular case, print ads, is drawn from evidence from another particular case, digital ads, which is claimed to be analogous.
C
infers a statistical generalization from claims about a large number of specific instances
The executive doesn’t make any generalizations, and only ever discusses two specific instances—definitely not a large number.
D
uses a case in which direct evidence is available to draw a conclusion about an analogous case in which direct evidence is unavailable
The executive uses the case of digital ads, for which direct evidence of poor consumer response is available, to draw a conclusion that the consumer response was also poor for print ads. This is necessary because there’s no direct evidence about the print ads.
E
bases a prediction about future events on facts about recent comparable events
The executive doesn’t make any future predictions, instead only drawing a conclusion about one recent event based on an analogy to another recent event.

6 comments

Conservation officers justified their decision to remove a pack of ten coyotes from a small island by claiming that the coyotes, which preyed on wild cats and plover, were decimating the plover population and would soon wipe it out. After the coyotes were removed, however, the plover population plummeted dramatically, and within two years plover could no longer be found on the island.

"Surprising" Phenomenon
Coyotes were removed from an island on the grounds they were decimating the plover population, but the plover population fell and eventually disappeared after the coyotes were removed.

Objective
The right answer will be a hypothesis that explains why removing the coyotes actually hurt the plover population. Since the coyotes preyed on wild cats, as well, the answer may point to a proliferation of other plover predators on the island.

A
Plover are ground-nesting birds, which makes them easy prey for coyotes.
This doesn’t explain why removing the coyotes harmed the plover population. If anything, this suggests removing the coyotes would’ve helped the plover.
B
Wild cat and plover populations tend to fluctuate together.
We don’t know what happened to the wild cat population once the coyotes were removed. Since the coyotes preyed on wild cats, it seems likely their population would’ve risen. The plover population would’ve thus risen as well, which it didn’t.
C
Coyotes are not susceptible to any of the diseases that commonly infect plover or wild cats.
The coyotes are gone. We need to know why their absence negatively affected the plover.
D
The wild cat population on the island was once significantly larger than it is currently.
We don’t know what a shrinking wild cat population would do for the plover. This doesn’t give us enough information.
E
The coyotes preyed mainly on wild cats, and wild cats prey on plover.
Once the coyotes were gone, wild cats ran rampant on the island and ate all the plover. This explains why removing the coyotes harmed the plover population.

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Economist: During a recession, a company can cut personnel costs either by laying off some employees without reducing the wages of remaining employees or by reducing the wages of all employees without laying off anyone. Both damage morale, but layoffs damage it less, since the aggrieved have, after all, left. Thus, when companies must reduce personnel costs during recessions, they are likely to lay off employees.

Summarize Argument
The economist concludes that companies are likely to lay off employees during recessions. This is because layoffs affect morale less than wage reductions.

Notable Assumptions
The economist believes that companies will undertake the action that affects morale the least in a recession. This means the economist assumes other considerations simply aren’t as important to companies, including financial considerations—the economist never claims that layoffs and wage reductions are equally cost-efficient.

A
Employee morale is usually the primary concern driving companies’ decisions about whether to lay off employees or to reduce their wages.
Companies indeed do decide mainly based on morale. This strengthens the economist’s argument that companies will go with the option that’s best for morale.
B
In general, companies increase wages only when they are unable to find enough qualified employees.
Wage increases aren’t on the table here.
C
Some companies will be unable to make a profit during recessions no matter how much they reduce personnel costs.
We don’t care whether they’ll make a profit. We’re interested in how they’ll reduce costs.
D
When companies cut personnel costs during recessions by reducing wages, some employees usually resign.
We have no idea if this would be a good thing or a bad thing for a company. Thus, this could be a strengthener or a weakener. We don’t want to assume which one it is.
E
Some companies that have laid off employees during recessions have had difficulty finding enough qualified employees once economic growth resumed.
This seems to weaken the economist’s argument. We’re trying to do the opposite.

5 comments