We’ve got a MSS question which we can tell from the question stem: If the statements above are true, which one of the following is the most strongly supported on the basis of them?

The stimulus starts with what looks like a sentence of contextual information which introduces us to a category: common threats to life. The embedded phrase between the commas gives us examples of common threats to life: automobile and industrial accidents. We’re told that only unusual instances of common threats like these receive coverage from the news media.

We then have a shift into what looks like our potential argument (remember that MSS requires us to find a conclusion that completes said argument). This shift is indicated by the “however” that’s wedged into the middle of the next sentence. We then get a premise that introduces us to another category: rare threats. We also get an example of rare threats: product tampering. We are told that instances of rare threats are seen as news and universally reported by reporters in featured stories.

Ok so we know that the media always reports instances of rare threats, but only reports unusual instances of common threats. We then get some information about how the media impacts the population at large: people tend to estimate the risk of threats based on how often those threats come to their attention.

What’s a common way things come to our attention? Well, the media, right? Do we see a potential connection here?

Media covers rare threats instead of common threats. People see coverage of rare threats but not common threats. People perceive greater risk from rare threats because they estimate risk based on how often something comes to their attention.

Seems like a good synthesis of the information we’ve been given! Now let’s go to the answer choices:

Answer Choice (A) We have no information about governmental action. We know about news coverage of risks and the way that individuals perceive risk, but we do not have enough information to draw any conclusions about the government.

Answer Choice (B) We are only given information about the amount of coverage that two types of risk are given. We don’t know anything about the quality of risk and how that affects people. We just know that the amount that people think about risks impacts how those individuals estimate the likelihood of those potential risks coming to fruition.

Correct Answer Choice (C) We know that people estimate risk based on how often it comes to their attention. People who get information primarily from the news media (the same news media that covers rare threats more than common threats) would be likely to perceive higher risk of uncommon (i.e. rare) threats relative to common threats because of the amount of coverage they receive. This is is fully supported by our stimulus, and therefore, correct!

Answer Choice (D) We don’t get any information in our stimulus about how the element of time plays into threats or coverage of threats, so there is nothing to support this answer.

Answer Choice (E) Hard to know where to start with this one! We don't have any information about money or resources spent on threats, so we can safely (and quickly) rule this AC out.


3 comments

When a threat to life is common, as are automobile and industrial accidents, only unusual instances tend to be prominently reported by the news media. Instances of rare threats, such as product tampering, however, are seen as news by reporters and are universally reported in featured stories. People in general tend to estimate the risk of various threats by how frequently those threats come to their attention.

Summary
In situations that commonly threaten people’s lives (like car crashes and industrial accidents), the news only really reports unusual incidents. However, rare threats like product tampering are prominently reported. Also, people generally estimate the risk of different threats based on how much they hear about those threats.

Strongly Supported Conclusions
The stimulus supports these conclusions:
News media are more likely to report on rare or unusual threats to life than on common threats.
People who estimate risk based on news reports likely underestimate the risk of common threats and overestimate the risk of rare or unusual threats.

A
Whether governmental action will be taken to lessen a common risk depends primarily on the prominence given to the risk by the news media.
This is not supported. The stimulus doesn’t mention or allude to government action at all, so we have no basis to conclude when the government will or won’t act to lessen a risk.
B
People tend to magnify the risk of a threat if the threat seems particularly dreadful or if those who would be affected have no control over it.
This is not supported. The facts given don’t suggest anything about threats seeming dreadful or how much control the people affected have. So, the facts don’t support any conclusion on those points.
C
Those who get their information primarily from the news media tend to overestimate the risk of uncommon threats relative to the risk of common threats.
This is strongly supported. People estimate risk based on how often they hear about threats. The news rarely reports on common threats but often reports on rare threats, so someone who gets information from the news would hear more about rare threats, and thus overestimate them.
D
Reporters tend not to seek out information about long-range future threats but to concentrate their attention on the immediate past and future.
This is not supported. We never learn about what information people tend to seek out, or any other distinction about long-range versus immediate threats. So, we can’t draw any conclusion about this.
E
The resources that are spent on avoiding product tampering are greater than the resources that are spent on avoiding threats that stem from the weather.
This is not supported. All we know is that the news media will report rare threats like product tampering. We don’t know anything about how that might translate to resources being spent on protection.

4 comments

Max: Although doing so would be very costly, humans already possess the technology to build colonies on the Moon. As the human population increases and the amount of unoccupied space available for constructing housing on Earth diminishes, there will be a growing economic incentive to construct such colonies to house some of the population. Thus, such colonies will almost certainly be built and severe overcrowding on Earth relieved.

Summarize Argument
The author concludes that Moon colonies will almost certainly be built, which will relieve overcrowding on Earth. This is based on the fact that as the human population goes up and the space available for housing on Earth goes down, the economic incentive to make Moon colonies will grow.

Identify and Describe Flaw
The author assumes that if the economic incentive for Moon colonies grows, then Moon colonies will be built. This overlooks the possibility that Moon colonies might not be built, even if there’s a growing economic incentive to build them. Having an incentive to do something merely means that you have a reason to do it. Even if that reason becomes more compelling, that doesn’t guarantee you’ll take the action.

A
It takes for granted that the economic incentive to construct colonies on the Moon will grow sufficiently to cause such a costly project to be undertaken.
If the incentive does not grow enough to cause the Moon colonies to be built, then that shows we cannot conclude the colonies will be built simply based on the incentive. So, the author does have to assume what (A) describes in order for the premise to support the conclusion.
B
It takes for granted that the only way of relieving severe overcrowding on Earth is the construction of colonies on the Moon.
The author does not assume there are no other ways to relieve overcrowding on Earth. The author’s position is simply that Moon colonies will be among the methods used to relieve overcrowding, not that other methods won’t be tried.
C
It overlooks the possibility that colonies will be built on the Moon regardless of any economic incentive to construct such colonies to house some of the population.
The conclusion is that the colonies will be built, so agreeing that they’ll be built doesn’t hurt the argument. (C) could be correct if the conclusion were that the colonies will be built because of the incentive. But, the incentive part is in the premise, not the conclusion.
D
It overlooks the possibility that colonies on the Moon might themselves quickly become overcrowded.
This possibility doen’t undermine the argument, becaue the conclusion only concerns overcrowding on Earth. Even if the Moon becomes overcrowded, there would still be at least some relief from overcrowding on Earth due to the Moon colonies.
E
It takes for granted that none of the human population would prefer to live on the Moon unless Earth were seriously overcrowded.
The argument doesn’t assume anything about people’s preferences. There might be some people who prefer to live on the Moon right now, even when Earth isn’t overcrowded. That wouldn’t impact the relationship between an economic incentive and the building of the colonies.

37 comments

“Good hunter” and “bad hunter” are standard terms in the study of cats. Good hunters can kill prey that weigh up to half their body weight. All good hunters have a high muscle-to-fat ratio. Most wild cats are good hunters, but some domestic cats are good hunters as well.

Summary
The stimulus can be diagrammed as follows:

Notable Valid Inferences
Most wildcats have a high muscle-to-fat ratio.

Most wildcats can kill prey that weigh up to half of their body weight.

Some cats that can kill prey that weigh up to half of their body weight have a high muscle-to-fat ratio.

Some domestic cats can kill prey that weigh up to half of their body weight.

Some domestic cats have a high muscle-to-fat ratio.

A
Some cats that have a high muscle-to-fat ratio are not good hunters.
This could be false. We know that all good hunters have a high muscle-to-fat ratio. It could be the case that some of the cats with a high muscle-to-fat ratio are not good hunters.
B
A smaller number of domestic cats than wild cats have a high muscle-to-fat ratio.
This could be false. We don’t have any information about the numbers of domestic cats or wild cats.
C
All cats that are bad hunters have a low muscle-to-fat ratio.
This could be false. We don’t know enough about cats that are bad hunters.
D
Some cats that have a high muscle-to-fat ratio are domestic.
This must be true. As shown in the diagram, we see that we can infer that some domestic cats have a high muscle-to-fat ratio.
E
All cats that have a high muscle-to-fat ratio can kill prey that weigh up to half their body weight.
This could be false. We know that some cats with a high muscle-to-fat ratio can kill prey that weigh up to half their body weight, but we don’t know if this is true for all of these cats.

8 comments