The people most likely to watch a televised debate between political candidates are the most committed members of the electorate and thus the most likely to have already made up their minds about whom to support. Furthermore, following a debate, uncommitted viewers are generally undecided about who won the debate. Hence, winning a televised debate does little to bolster one’s chances of winning an election.

A
watching an exciting debate makes people more likely to vote in an election
We don't know if the debate is exciting. Also, the people most likely to watch it are already committed voters. But even if it is exciting and causes more people to vote, (A) doesn't address the conclusion that winning it doesn't improve one’s chances of winning the election.
B
the voting behavior of people who do not watch a televised debate is influenced by reports about the debate
The author only addresses how televised debates affect viewers, saying that many are already committed to one candidate and the rest are unsure who won. But he fails to address how televised debates affect non-viewers. Their votes might be influenced by reports about the debate.
C
there are differences of opinion about what constitutes winning or losing a debate
The premises state that many viewers are already committed to one candidate or another; it makes sense that they’d be likely to disagree about who won the debate. But this doesn’t affect the conclusion that winning doesn’t impact one’s chance of winning the election.
D
people’s voting behavior may be influenced in unpredictable ways by comments made by the participants in a televised debate
Whether voting behavior is influenced in “unpredictable ways” by a debate doesn’t affect the conclusion that winning a debate doesn’t impact one’s chances of winning the election. Are these “unpredictable ways” positive or negative for the winner? We just don’t know.
E
people who are committed to a particular candidate will vote even if their candidate is perceived as having lost a televised debate
The author doesn’t fail to consider this. He explicitly says that, because many viewers are committed to a particular candidate, winning or not winning a debate doesn’t affect one’s chance of winning an election.

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Columnist: George Orwell’s book 1984 has exercised much influence on a great number of this newspaper’s readers. One thousand readers were surveyed and asked to name the one book that had the most influence on their lives. The book chosen most often was the Bible; 1984 was second.

Summarize Argument

The author concludes that 1984 has had a great influence on the newspapers’ readers. This is because the second-most readers chose 1984 as the book that’d had the greatest influence on their lives.

Notable Assumptions

In order for 1984 to have exercised a great influence on the newspapers’s readers, the author assumes that 1984 received a substantial amount of votes. If the Bible had received 990 of the votes and 1984 had received 2, followed by an 8-way tie for third place, then the study wouldn’t demonstrate 1984’s great influence by any stretch.

A
How many books had each person surveyed read?

Irrelevant. We don’t care how many books each person read. We’re only interested in the ones the readers named as the book that most influenced their lives.

B
How many people chose books other than 1984?

If many people chose books other than 1984, then 1984 may not have received all that many votes (e.g if 500 books were chosen, 1984 might’ve only needed 10 votes to be 2nd place). If few people did, then 1984 might’ve received hundreds of votes (e.g. Bible 500, 1984 400, etc.).

C
How many people read the columnist’s newspaper?

We don’t care how many people read the newspaper. We know they surveyed 1000 people.

D
How many books by George Orwell other than 1984 were chosen?

We don’t care about other Orwell books. Even if those were chosen, we know those ranked lower than 1984.

E
How many of those surveyed had actually read the books they chose?

The author never claims people have read the books they cite as being influential on their own lives. The Bible may be influential on someone’s life even if that person hasn’t read it.


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