The conclusion is the first sentence. The verb "promotes" is causal. We are talking about whether democracy as a political system promotes political freedom (i.e., whether it causes there to be more political freedom) in general.

Step back for a second and think about what it means to say A promotes B in general (as opposed to a specific A and a specific B). For example, exercise promotes good health (as opposed to Joe's exercising promoting his good health). Again, it's pretty obvious that we're talking about causation. But what does "causation" mean here?

Does it mean that A is sufficient for B? No. Because "exercise is sufficient for good health" is false but "exercise promotes good health" is true. Plenty of people exercise and are not in good health. In fact, their poor state of health may be why they're exercising - they're trying to improve their health. And plenty of other people exercise to the detriment of their health. They overdo it, hurt themselves, or worse. But it's still true that "exercise promotes good health."

Does it mean that A is necessary for B? No. Because "exercise is necessary for good health" is also false. Plenty of people don't exercise yet are perfectly healthy. Maybe they have great genes, a healthy diet, or they're just young. There could be a number of reasons. But it's still true that "exercise promotes good health."

The point is that a causal claim like "A promotes B" doesn't mean that A is sufficient for B nor does it mean that A is necessary for B. Because that's just not how causation works in the world. Causes tend to be partial. They tend to exert their causal power along with other causal forces. Exercise in fact is a causal component for good health but there are many other causal components (genes, diet, age, preventative medicine, not getting hit by a bus, etc.). They all work together to produce the effect.

This is the confusion at the heart of the argument. The "political scientist's" conclusion is a causal claim but she confused it for a bi-conditional claim.

Let's help her out. Let's swap out her causal conclusion with a bi-conditional conclusion: It's not the case that political freedom is promoted if and only if the political system is a democracy.

If we don't touch the rest of her argument, then she's all set. Premise one "democracies that suppress political freedom" proves that democracy isn't sufficient. Premise two "autocracies that promote political freedom" proves that democracy isn't necessary. Done!

So another way that the correct answer could have been worded is perhaps something like this: The reasoning in the political scientist's argument is flawed because it confuses a causal claim with a conditional claim.

But if you scratch that a bit and ask "Why is it a reasoning flaw to confuse a causal claim with a conditional claim," well, stroll right on over to (D). It's a flaw because in general, a cause can be a cause without being either sufficient nor necessary. Democracy can be a promote political freedom without being sufficient nor necessary for political freedom.

All of the above is with the caveat that we're talking about general phenomena, which is what this question is about. If instead you want to talk about specific phenomena, like Joe's rainy weekend rock climbing accident causing his extra-articular wrist fracture, then his rock climbing is a necessary condition. Had he not gone rock climbing, then his wrist wouldn't have broken in that exact way. But his rock climbing still isn't sufficient since all other causal forces had to conspire, e.g. the rain had to have fallen in order to make the rock slippery in the first place.


1 comment

A recent study reveals that television advertising does not significantly affect children’s preferences for breakfast cereals. The study compared two groups of children. One group had watched no television, and the other group had watched average amounts of television and its advertising. Both groups strongly preferred the sugary cereals heavily advertised on television.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that TV advertising doesn’t have a strong impact on children’s cereal preferences. This hypothesis is based on a study that compared the cereal preferences of children who had watched no television with children who had watched average amounts of television. The study showed that both groups strongly preferred sugary cereals that were heavily advertised on television.

Notable Assumptions
The argument assumes that the group of children who had watched no TV was not indirectly impacted in some way by the TV ads. Additionally, it could be the case that the children who watched TV were swayed by the TV ads, and the children who watched no TV were swayed by something else, like print ads. The study cited does not strongly support the conclusion that TV ads are not strongly impacting children’s preferences.

A
The preferences of children who do not watch television advertising are influenced by the preferences of children who watch the advertising.
(A) shows that the children who hadn’t watched any television could have been indirectly influenced by the television ads. This is an alternate hypothesis that could explain the study results, so it weakens the author’s argument.
B
The preference for sweets is not a universal trait in humans, and can be influenced by environmental factors such as television advertising.
The fact that it’s possible for something like television advertising to influence preferences does nothing to suggest that it did influence preferences. This does not provide any information that impacts the argument.
C
Most of the children in the group that had watched television were already familiar with the advertisements for these cereals.
It doesn’t matter if these children were already familiar with the advertisements, because they would have become familiar during the experiment. It doesn’t matter when they were exposed to the ads; we only care if they were influenced by these ads.
D
Both groups rejected cereals low in sugar even when these cereals were heavily advertised on television.
This provides further information to suggest that advertisements don’t successfully impact children’s preferences. This agrees with the argument’s conclusion and does not weaken the argument.
E
Cereal preferences of adults who watch television are known to be significantly different from the cereal preferences of adults who do not watch television.
The argument is about children’s preferences, so this information about adults is irrelevant to the argument and does not weaken it.

31 comments

Loggerhead turtles live and breed in distinct groups, of which some are in the Pacific Ocean and some are in the Atlantic. New evidence suggests that juvenile Pacific loggerheads that feed near the Baja peninsula hatch in Japanese waters 10,000 kilometers away. Ninety-five percent of the DNA samples taken from the Baja turtles match those taken from turtles at the Japanese nesting sites.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that juvenile Pacific loggerhead turtles that feed near the Baja peninsula hatch 10,000 kilometers away, near Japan. As support for this hypothesis, the author says that 95% of the DNA from these turtles near the Baja peninsula matches the DNA of the turtles near Japan.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that a 95% DNA match is enough to conclude that different turtles belong to the same group.

A
Nesting sites of loggerhead turtles have been found off the Pacific coast of North America several thousand kilometers north of the Baja peninsula.
Our argument is whether or not the turtles near the Baja peninsula and the turtles near Japan belong to the same group; the fact that there are other nesting sites is irrelevant to the argument.
B
The distance between nesting sites and feeding sites of Atlantic loggerhead turtles is less than 5,000 kilometers.
This provides more information about conditions exclusively in the Atlantic Ocean, while our argument discusses Pacific turtles. This information does not impact our argument about the Pacific turtles.
C
Loggerhead hatchlings in Japanese waters have been declining in number for the last decade while the number of nesting sites near the Baja peninsula has remained constant.
This answer does not weaken the argument because it gives information about the number of hatchlings (aka individual turtles) near Japan, but the number of nesting sites near the Baja peninsula. Comparing these different data points is not useful and doesn’t weaken the argument.
D
Ninety-five percent of the DNA samples taken from the Baja turtles match those taken from Atlantic loggerhead turtles.
This tells us that two sets of turtles that are definitely from different groups (Atlantic turtles and Pacific turtles) have a 95% DNA match. If turtles from different groups can have 95% DNA match, then the argument loses its support.
E
Commercial aquariums have been successfully breeding Atlantic loggerheads with Pacific loggerheads for the last five years.
The argument is about turtles in the wild, and whether or not turtles found in two different areas belong to the same group. (E) does not provide any information that impacts this argument.

48 comments