Sales manager: Having spent my entire career in sales, most of that time as a sales manager for a large computer company, I know that natural superstar salespeople are rare. But many salespeople can perform like superstars if they have a good manager. Therefore, companies should _______.

Summary

The speaker starts by noting that natural superstar salespeople are rare. But, if they have a good manager, many regular salespeople can perform like superstars.

Strongly Supported Conclusions

The blank should be filled with a recommendation about what companies should do based on the fact that good managers can help regular salespeople perform like superstars. The speaker would likely recommend that companies should try have salespeople supervised by good managers.

A
devote more effort to training than to evaluating salespeople

Unsupported. We know that managers can improve performance of salespeople. But we don’t know whether this has to do with training. And we don’t know whether evaluation is less important than training.

B
devote more effort to finding good managers than to finding natural superstar salespeople

Strongly supported. Natural superstars are rare, but good managers can make regular salespeople perform like superstars. This is a strong reason for companies to focus more on finding good managers.

C
keep to a minimum the number of salespeople for which a manager is responsible

Unsupported. The stimulus doesn’t provide evidence about the optimum number of people a manager should supervise. We don’t even know whether supervising a lot of people is a bad thing.

D
promote more natural superstar salespeople to management positions

Unsupported. The stimulus doesn’t suggest that natural superstar salespeople will make better managers than regular salespeople.

E
reward superstar performance more than superstar talent

Unsupported. The stimulus doesn’t discuss rewards or what high performers should get.


2 comments

An unstable climate was probably a major cause of the fall of the Roman empire. Tree-ring analysis shows that Europe’s climate underwent extreme fluctuations between 250 A.D. and 550 A.D., a period that encompasses Rome’s decline and fall. This highly variable climate surely hurt food production, which made the empire harder to rule and defend.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author hypothesizes that an unstable climate was likely a major factor in the fall of the Roman empire. This is based on an observation that Europe’s climate was unstable during the time of the Roman empire’s decline and fall. The author suggests a causal link with the empire’s fall, because an unstable climate could be bad for food production, thus weakening the empire.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that there are not other, much more significant alternative explanations for the fall of the Roman empire. The author also assumes that any difficulty caused by lower food production was great enough to contribute to the empire’s downfall.

A
Political failures within the Roman empire during its last years led to conflicts that hampered agricultural production.
This weakens the author’s hypothesis by providing an alternative explanation for the fall of the Roman empire. Either way, this doesn’t support unstable climate as a major cause.
B
The areas of the Roman empire that had the greatest climatic instability between 250 A.D. and 550 A.D. did not experience unusual levels of unrest during that period.
This weakens the author’s assumption that an unstable climate had a negative enough effect to bring down the empire; if that were the case, we would expect the areas with more climactic instability to have higher unrest.
C
Poor farming practices led to depleted soil in many parts of Europe during the last years of the Roman empire.
This weakens the author’s hypothesis by providing an alternative explanation for instability due to poor food production: poor farming practices, rather than an unstable climate. In other words, the unstable climate may have only been a minor cause.
D
During periods when the Roman empire was thriving, Europe consistently experienced weather that was favorable for agriculture.
This strengthens the author’s hypothesis by more closely correlating climate stability with the empire’s strength, supporting the hypothesis that an unstable climate could have been a major factor in the empire’s failure.
E
Total food production in Europe was likely greater in the years around 550 A.D. than in the years around 250 A.D.
This is irrelevant, because it still doesn’t tell us how significant the impact of the unstable climate was on food production. Sure, production rose and fell, but how much? It also doesn’t offer any explanation of how food production impacted the Roman empire.

27 comments

A nonprofit organization concerned with a social issue sent out a fund-raising letter to 5,000 people. The letter was accompanied by a survey soliciting recipients’ opinions. Of the 300 respondents, 283 indicated in the survey that they agreed with the organization’s position on the social issue. This suggests that most of the 5,000 people to whom the letter was sent agreed with that position.

Summarize Argument
An organization sent a fund-raising letter to 5,000 people. The author concludes that most of the 5,000 people to whom the letter was sent agreed with the organizaton’s position on a particular social issue. This is supported by results of a survey that was sent with the letter. Out of the 300 who responded to the survey, 283 responded that they agreed with the organization.

Identify and Describe Flaw
The author overlooks the possibility that the people who responded to the survey are unrepresentative of the people who didn’t respond to the survey with respect to their opinion on the issue. It’s possible that the people who responded are much more likely than the average recipient to be supportive of the organization’s position.

A
It draws a conclusion about a population from observations of a subgroup that is quite likely to be unrepresentative of that population in certain relevant respects.
The conclusion is based on responses of survey responders. It’s reasonable to think that responders are more likely to agree with the organization’s position than people who didn’t respond. So they’re likely unrepresentative of the entire group of 5,000.
B
It takes for granted that most individuals do not vary significantly in the opinions they would express on a given issue if surveyed regarding that issue on different occasions.
The conclusion asserts that most of the 5,000 agreed with the organization’s position. This doesn’t mean the author thinks people might not change their opinions later and respond differently later.
C
It relies on the accuracy of a survey made under conditions in which it is probable that most of the responses to that survey did not correctly reflect the opinions of the respondents.
We have no reason to suspect that when people responded that they agreed with the organization, that they actually didn’t agree. It’s possible this happened, but we have no reason to think it’s “probable.”
D
It uses evidence about an opinion held by the majority of a population in an attempt to justify a conclusion regarding the opinion of a small part of that population.
(D) is reversed. The author uses evidence concerning a small portion of a population (the survey responders) to justify a conclusion about a majority of the population (most people who got the letter and survey).
E
It takes for granted that the fund-raising letter had some influence on the opinions of most of the people who received it.
The author doesn’t assume that the letter affected anyone’s opinions. The argument simply interprets the survey results as indicative of the opinion of most people who got the letter.

6 comments

Critic: The Gazette-Standard newspaper recently increased its editorial staff to avoid factual errors. But this clearly is not working. Compared to its biggest competitor, the Gazette-Standard currently runs significantly more corrections acknowledging factual errors.

Summarize Argument

The critic concludes that the Gazette-Standard’s increase in editorial staff isn’t working. His evidence is that the Gazette-Standard runs more corrections of factual errors than its competitors.

Notable Assumptions

The critic assumes that the Gazette-Standard runs more corrections of factual errors because more factual errors appear in its pages than those of competing newspapers. This means the critic doesn’t think other newspapers are making as many or more mistakes without correcting them.

A
The Gazette-Standard pays its editorial staff lower salaries than its biggest competitor pays its editorial staff.

We don’t care how much the Gazette-Standard pays its editorial staff. We have no idea how that would affect their quality of work.

B
The Gazette-Standard has been in business considerably longer than has its biggest competitor.

We don’t care how long these newspapers have been in business. We care about the recent editorial changes.

C
The Gazette-Standard more actively follows up reader complaints about errors in the paper than does its biggest competitor.

The Gazette-Standard runs more corrections because it follows up on reader complaints. We therefore can’t conclude the Gazette-Standard actually has more errors than its competitor, who may only follow up on a small portion of reader complaints.

D
The Gazette-Standard’s articles are each checked by more editors than are the articles of its biggest competitor.

If these articles are being checked by more editors, then the newspaper shouldn’t have to keep running so many corrections. This seems to support the author’s argument.

E
The increase in the Gazette-Standard’s editorial staff has been offset by a decrease in the reporting staff at the newspaper.

Less reporters doesn’t mean the newspaper will necessarily have more editorial errors. We have no idea what effect less reporters would have on the newspaper.


23 comments