"Surprising" Phenomenon
How does a new shopping mall generate significant economic activity while contributing little to the overall economy?
Objective
Any hypothesis that resolves this discrepancy must address the relationship between the economic activity in a shopping mall and the greater community’s economy. It must allow for the overall economy to grow somewhat, but by a smaller amount than the total economic activity contained in the mall.
A
When large shopping malls are new they attract a lot of shoppers but once the novelty has worn off they usually attract fewer shoppers than does the traditional downtown shopping district.
This introduces a distinction between new and old shopping malls that is irrelevant to the discrepancy at hand. The author refers to new shopping malls, and does not reference economic effects at different stages of a mall’s life cycle.
B
Most of the money spent in a large shopping mall is spent by tourists who are drawn specifically by the mall and who would not have visited the community had that mall not been built.
This widens the discrepancy by implying the mall's economic activity should be mostly reflected in the community’s overall economy. If most customers come from out of town, they bring economic activity to the community that would otherwise go elsewhere.
C
Most of the jobs created by large shopping malls are filled by people who recently moved to the community and who would not have moved had there been no job offer in the community.
This implies the mall causes an increase in the community’s population, which if anything would boost the larger economy even more than expected. If the mall draws workers, then those workers will spend their money in the greater community and increase the total economic output.
D
Most of the money spent in a large shopping mall is money that would have been spent elsewhere in the same community had that mall not been built.
This explains why a new mall will contribute little to the overall economy. If the mall draws business from other places in the community, it causes a redistribution of existing economic activity but does not necessarily generate new activity.
E
Most of the jobs created by the construction of a large shopping mall are temporary, and most of the permanent jobs created are low paying.
This is an irrelevant distinction between the economy when the mall is being built and the economy after the mall is built. The mall offering low-paying permanent jobs does not explain its failure to grow the community's economy as a whole.
Summary
The argument concludes that the dwarf masked owl will reside on the Baja peninsula this winter only if steps are taken to bring back spiny cacti. This is supported by the claims that spiny cacti provide the only suitable nesting sites for this owl on the Baja peninsula, and that a recent blight destroyed all of the peninsula’s spiny cacti.
Notable Assumptions
The conclusion that taking steps to reestablish spiny cacti is necessary for the owls to reside on the Baja peninsula over the winter involves several assumptions:
- That spiny cacti will not reestablish themselves on the Baja peninsula before winter even if no steps are taken.
- That there are no other plants which could be introduced to substitute for spiny cacti.
- That suitable nesting sites are necessary for the owls to reside on the Baja peninsula over the winter.
- That spiny cacti will not reestablish themselves on the Baja peninsula before winter even if no steps are taken.
- That there are no other plants which could be introduced to substitute for spiny cacti.
- That suitable nesting sites are necessary for the owls to reside on the Baja peninsula over the winter.
A
No birds of prey other than the dwarf masked owl nest in the spiny cactus.
The impact of the cactus blight on other birds is irrelevant to this argument, which is purely about the impact on the dwarf masked owl.
B
If the Baja peninsula contains spiny cacti, then the dwarf masked owl makes its winter home there.
Posing spiny cacti as a sufficient condition for the owl to reside on the peninsula over winter doesn’t contribute to the conclusion that reestablishing cacti is a necessary condition. Like (D), this is unnecessary.
C
On occasion the dwarf masked owl has been known to make its winter home far from its normal migratory route.
Whether this owl has previously spent the winter elsewhere doesn’t affect whether reestablishing the spiny cactus is necessary for the owl to spend this winter on the peninsula.
D
The dwarf masked owl will not make its winter home on the Baja peninsula only if that region contains no spiny cacti.
Like (B), this makes spiny cacti a sufficient condition for the owl to spend winter on the peninsula. This isn’t necessary for the argument, which poses reestablishing the cacti as a necessary condition.
E
Suitable nesting sites must be present where the dwarf masked owl makes its winter home.
The argument concludes that reestablishing spiny cacti is necessary on the basis that they exclusively provide nesting sites for the owl. Without this assumption, that link of support would be broken and the conclusion would be unsupported.
"Surprising" Phenomenon
Why do smokers who smoke one pack a day have identical levels of nicotine in their blod at the end of the day regardless of whether they smoke a pack of high-nicotine cigarettes or low-nicotine cigarettes?
Objective
The correct answer should give us a reason that the difference between high-nicotine packs and low-nicotine packs might not lead to a difference in nicotine levels in blood at the end of the day for smokers who smoke one pack.
A
Blood cannot absorb more nicotine per day than that found in the smoke from a package of the lowest-nicotine cigarettes available.
This establishes a ceiling for nicotine in one’s blood and that low-nicotine packs already lead to nicotine levels at that ceiling. High-nicotine packs have more nicotine, but won’t go above the ceiling of nicotine levels in people’s blood.
B
Smokers of the lowest-nicotine cigarettes available generally smoke more cigarettes per day than smokers of high-nicotine cigarettes.
The statistic in the stimulus involves smokers who smoke just one pack a day. This controls for varying amounts of cigarettes.
C
Most nicotine is absorbed into the blood of a smoker even if it is delivered in smaller quantities.
Even if this is true, if low-nicotine packs have less nicotine overall, we would still expect less nicotine in their blood.
D
The level of tar in cigarettes is higher in low-nicotine cigarettes than it is in some high-nicotine cigarettes.
We have no reason to suspect the level of tar in cigarettes impacts the level of nicotine in one’s blood.
E
When taking in nicotine by smoking cigarettes is discontinued, the level of nicotine in the blood decreases steadily.
We’re concerned about nicotine levels after smoking. What happens to nicotine when people stop smoking doesn’t help explain the identical nicotine levels observed after smoking.
"Surprising" Phenomenon
Why did corporate employees not perceive their job security to have changed appreciably from the beginning to the end of a decade during which their jobs were less secure?
Objective
The correct answer must fail to identify a reason for employees in 1994 to be as confident in their job security as employees in 1984. Every wrong answer, meanwhile, will provide a good hypothesis suggesting that the employees’ jobs were equally secure in both years, or that employees in 1994 were more likely than employees in 1984 to say their jobs were secure for a different reason.
A
A large number of the people in both surveys work in small companies that were not affected by mergers, reengineering, and downsizing.
This explains the consistent confidence measurement. The workers surveyed were largely not the ones at risk, so they did not perceive their job security to have changed much.
B
Employees who feel secure in their jobs tend to think that the jobs of others are secure.
This does not explain why employees remained apparently overconfident in their own job security. The author does not imply that employees were asked about other employees' jobs.
C
The corporate downsizing that took place during this period had been widely anticipated for several years before the mid-1980s.
This makes the consistent job confidence less surprising. If employees in 1984 were expecting downsizing, and employees in 1994 had experienced it, then employees in both years responded to the survey based on similar outlooks.
D
Most of the major downsizing during this period was completed within a year after the first survey.
This makes the consistent survey results less surprising. If the survey was conducted in years before and well after significant downsizing, employees in both years were likely not expecting it.
E
In the mid-1990s, people were generally more optimistic about their lives, even in the face of hardship, than they were a decade before.
This contributes to an explanation of the survey results. Employees in 1994 had an optimistic outlook that countered the effects of their declining job security to keep the survey results roughly consistent.
Miguel: No, lowering the current allowable blood alcohol level would have little effect on highway safety, because it would not address the most important aspect of the drunken driving problem, which is the danger to the public posed by heavy drinkers, who often drive with a blood alcohol level of twice the current legal limit.
Speaker 1 Summary
The allowable blood alcohol level for drivers should be cut in half. Why? Because this will deter social drinkers from drinking and driving, which would result in increased highway safety.
Speaker 2 Summary
We should not cut the allowable blood alcohol level for drivers in half. Why? Because heavy drinkers, who often drive at twice the legal limit, are the greatest danger posed to the public. Cutting the limit in half would not address them and therefore would not increase highway safety.
Objective
We need a statement that Steven and Miguel disagree on. They disagree whether the allowable blood alcohol limit for drivers should be cut in half. Steven thinks it should because it would deter social drinkers from drinking and driving. Miguel thinks it shouldn’t because the strategy wouldn’t address the danger of heavy drinkers.
A
Social drinkers who drink and drive pose a substantial threat to the public.
The speakers disagree on this statement. Steven agrees that social drinkers pose a substantial threat, and this is reason for advocating the legal limit to be cut in half. Miguel disagrees and thinks heavy drinkers are the most important aspect of the drunken driving problem.
B
There is a direct correlation between a driver’s blood alcohol level and the driver’s ability to drive safely.
The speakers agree on this statement. Both speakers agree that a driver’s blood alcohol level affects their ability to drive safety. The speaker’s dispute is regarding what level poses the greatest risk to the public.
C
A driver with a blood alcohol level above the current legal limit poses a substantial danger to the public.
The speakers agree on this statement. Steven is disputing that this limit is too high and should be cut in half. Miguel states that heavy drinkers who drink well beyond the limit are the most significant threat to the public.
D
Some drivers whose blood alcohol level is lower than the current legal limit pose a danger to the public.
Miguel does not express and opinion on this statement. Miguel only states that the current level should not be cut in half because heavy drinkers pose the greatest public threat.
E
A driver with a blood alcohol level slightly greater than half the current legal limit poses no danger to the public.
Neither speaker expresses an opinion on this statement. We don’t know whether either speaker believes that there are any drivers that pose no danger to the public.