A survey taken ten years ago of residents of area L showed that although living conditions were slightly below their country’s average, most residents of L reported general satisfaction with their living conditions. However, this year the same survey found that while living conditions are now about the same as the national average, most residents of L report general dissatisfaction with their living conditions.

"Surprising" Phenomenon
Residents of L have become less satisfied with their living conditions despite their living conditions improving relative to the national average.

Objective
The correct answer will be a hypothesis that explains why residents of L have grown more dissatisfied with their living conditions as their living conditions approach the national average. The explanation must account for some change in the population over the 10-year period in question, or else provide a fact not accounted for in the stimulus about the residents’ living conditions.

A
Residents of area L typically value aspects of living conditions different from the aspects of living conditions that are valued by residents of adjacent areas.
This doesn’t explain why the residents of L have grown less satisfied with their own living conditions. We have to assume residents of L are judging on the same criteria as before.
B
Between the times that the two surveys were conducted, the average living conditions in L’s country had substantially declined.
True, residents of L are closer to the national average than before. But the national average is much worse than it was 10 years ago, hence why residents of L judge their living conditions negatively. This resolves the conflict.
C
Optimal living conditions were established in the survey by taking into account governmental policies and public demands on three continents.
Much like (A), we don’t really care who established the criteria. We need to know why residents of L are less satisfied with their living conditions as their living conditions align with the national average.
D
Living conditions in an area generally improve only if residents perceive their situation as somehow in need of improvement.
Residents of L were satisfied 10 years ago, but that didn’t mean they weren’t ready to make improvements. Besides, this doesn’t explain why they’ve become less satisfied.
E
Ten years ago the residents of area L were not aware that their living conditions were below the national average.
This doesn’t say that the residents of L are now aware of the national average, either. We need a comparative element.

15 comments

Travel agent: Although most low-fare airlines have had few, if any, accidents, very few such airlines have been in existence long enough for their safety records to be reliably established. Major airlines, on the other hand, usually have long-standing records reliably indicating their degree of safety. Hence, passengers are safer on a major airline than on one of the newer low-fare airlines.

Summarize Argument

The travel agent concludes that passengers are safer on major airlines than on low-fare airlines. He supports this by saying that most major airlines have long-standing, reliable safety records, while low-fare airlines often don’t have enough history to establish reliable safety records.

Identify and Describe Flaw

The travel agent draws a comparative conclusion about major airlines being safer than low-fare airlines. However, he doesn’t actually establish the safety of either kind of airline, so he can’t accurately compare the two.

Just because major airlines have reliable records doesn’t mean that those records indicate that the airlines are safe. In fact, the reliable records might show that major airlines are unsafe. Similarly, just because low-fare airlines don’t have established safety records doesn’t mean that they are actually unsafe.

A
The argument fails to address adequately the possibility that the average major airline has had a total number of accidents as great as the average low-fare airline has had.

If anything, having the same number of accidents as low-fare airlines would support the idea that major airlines are safer, since they’ve been around longer than low-fare airlines. Also, (A) simply doesn’t point out the argument’s key vulnerability.

B
The argument draws a general conclusion about how safe passengers are on different airlines on the basis of safety records that are each from too brief a period to adequately justify such a conclusion.

The agent says low-fare airline records are too short to be reliable while major airline records are not. His argument is vulnerable because it draws a general conclusion about passengers’ safety on different airlines without actually establishing the airlines’ safety at all.

C
The argument fails to consider the possibility that long-standing and reliable records documenting an airline’s degree of safety may indicate that the airline is unsafe.

The agent concludes that major airlines are safer because their safety records are more long-standing and reliable. However, he fails to consider that those reliable records might actually show that major airlines are unsafe.

D
The argument takes for granted that airlines that are the safest are also the most reliable in documenting their safety.

The agent assumes that airlines with more reliable records are safer. But he doesn't necessarily assume that the safest airlines are the most reliable in documenting their safety.

E
The argument fails to address adequately the possibility that even airlines with long-standing, reliable records indicating their degree of safety are still likely to have one or more accidents.

The agent is simply saying that major airlines are comparatively safer than low-fare airlines. As long as they have fewer accidents than low-fare airlines, it doesn’t matter whether major airlines still have some accidents.

The question stem reads: Of the following, which one is the criticism to which the reasoning in the travel agent's argument is most vulnerable? This is a flaw question.

The travel agent begins by claiming while most low-fare airlines have had few accidents, they also have not existed long enough to establish a reliable safety record. The agent goes on to claim that major airlines have long-standing records that indicate the airline's safety. The agent concludes that passengers are safe on major airlines than on low-fare airlines.

The author has made the comparative claim that major airlines are safer than low-fare airlines. So for evidence, we would need to compare how safe major airlines are versus how safe low-fare airlines are. However, the agent never actually mentions the safety of any airline; the agent only claims that major airlines have reliable records and low-fare airlines do not have reliable records. Using the agent's reasoning, we could conclude that Antarctica is hotter than Saudi Arabia because the thermometers in Antarctica are much more reliable! So the major airlines' very accurate records may indicate that they are unsafe. Let's take a look at the answer choices.

Answer Choice (A) is incorrect. The real number of accidents committed is of little use to us. Let's say the low-fare airlines crashed 10 out of the 100 flights they ran. Let's also say the major airlines crashed 100 of 100,000 flights. So the major airlines have crashed ten times more flights than the low-fare airlines. However, the major airlines only crashed 1% of their total flights, while the low-fare flights crashed 10%. So despite crashing more flights, the major airlines are much safe.

Answer Choice (B) is incorrect. The agent has claimed the major airline's safety records are reliable. The problem is we do not know what those safety records say.

Correct Answer Choice (C) is what we prephased. The agent has failed to consider that the major airlines could have very reliable safety records and be unsafe.

Answer Choice (D) is incorrect but very close. The agent never says that the major airlines have the most reliable safety records. The agent says the airlines have reliable safety records. (D) would look better if the agent said, "Major airlines have more reliable safety records than any other kind of airline."

Answer Choice (E) is incorrect. The agent claims that the major airlines are comparatively safer than low-fare airlines. So, the major airlines could have one or even hundreds of accidents. The agent's conclusion is ok as long as the major airlines have accidents less frequently than the low-fare airlines.


33 comments

A person with a type B lipid profile is at much greater risk of heart disease than a person with a type A lipid profile. In an experiment, both type A volunteers and type B volunteers were put on a low-fat diet. The cholesterol levels of the type B volunteers soon dropped substantially, although their lipid profiles were unchanged. The type A volunteers, however, showed no benefit from the diet, and 40 percent of them actually shifted to type B profiles.

Summary
People with type B lipid profiles experience much greater risk of heart disease than do people with type A lipid profiles.
An experiment was conducted in which type A and type B lipid profile volunteers were put on a low-fat diet. Their cholesterol levels and lipid profiles were monitored.
During the experiment, type B volunteers and type A volunteers showed very different results. Type B volunteers demonstrated lowered cholesterol levels but no change to their lipid profiles. Meanwhile, type A volunteers experienced no benefits and, in 40% of cases, actually shifted to type B lipid profiles.

Notable Valid Inferences
At the end of the experiment, 40% of type A volunteers were at greater risk of heart disease than they were at the beginning.
Changes in cholesterol levels do not necessarily correlate with changes in lipid profile types.

A
In the experiment, most of the volunteers had their risk of heart disease reduced at least marginally as a result of having been put on the diet.
Could be false. Maybe there were 1,000 original type A volunteers and 10 type B! Also, we don’t know if the type B volunteers’ heart disease risk reduced. Maybe a factor other than cholesterol or lipid type changed during the experiment and counteracted the cholesterol changes.
B
People with type B lipid profiles have higher cholesterol levels, on average, than do people with type A lipid profiles.
Could be false. While we know that type B volunteers’ cholesterol dropped in the experiment, we don’t know how high their cholesterol actually was. Nor do we know anything about the type A lipid profile people’s cholesterol, other than that it did not change in the experiment.
C
Apart from adopting the low-fat diet, most of the volunteers did not substantially change any aspect of their lifestyle that would have affected their cholesterol levels or lipid profiles.
Could be false. We have no idea what other behaviors volunteers engaged in during the experiment! That’s a reason why we can’t draw valid inferences about the actual impact of low-fat diets from the stimulus—we can only draw inferences about the results of this one experiment.
D
The reduction in cholesterol levels in the volunteers is solely responsible for the change in their lipid profiles.
Must be false. The only volunteers who experienced a reduction in cholesterol levels (the original type B people) did not experience a change in their lipid profiles.
E
For at least some of the volunteers in the experiment, the risk of heart disease increased after having been put on the low-fat diet.
Must be true. People with a type B lipid profile are at greater risk of heart disease, so when 40% of the original type A volunteers experienced a shift to type B profiles and no benefits to counteract that change, they ended up at higher risk for heart disease.

10 comments

The Kiffer Forest Preserve, in the northernmost part of the Abbimac Valley, is where most of the bears in the valley reside. During the eight years that the main road through the preserve has been closed the preserve’s bear population has nearly doubled. Thus, the valley’s bear population will increase if the road is kept closed.

Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author concludes that the valley’s bear population will increase if the road that runs through the preserve (which is a part of the valley) is kept closed. This is because during the past eight years, during which that road has been closed, the preserve’s bear population has nearly doubled.

Notable Assumptions
The author assumes that there has been an increase in the valley’s bear population over the eight years the road has been closed. (There’s a difference between the preserve’s population increasing and the valley’s population increasing.) The author also assumes that the closing of the road over the last eight years was the cause of the increase in the preserve’s bear population.

A
Most of the increase in the preserve’s bear population over the past eight years is due to migration.
Even if most of the increase is due to migration, this migration can still involve bears who were originally outside the valley. So, this doesn’t undermine the assumption that the valley bear population increased.
B
Only some of the increase in the preserve’s bear population over the past eight years is due to migration of bears from other parts of the Abbimac Valley.
This strengthens by establishing that only some, but not all, of the increase in the preserve’s bear population is from bears in the valley. This means some of the increase comes from bears outside the valley, which supports the assumption that the valley’s population increased.
C
Only some of the increase in the preserve’s bear population over the past eight years is due to migration of bears from outside the Abbimac Valley.
This strengthens by establishing that at least some of the increase in the preserve’s bear population is from bears outside the valley. This supports the assumption that the valley’s population did experience an increase during the eight years.
D
The bear population in areas of the Abbimac Valley outside the Kiffer Forest Preserve has decreased over the past eight years.
This answer is consistent with an increase in overall valley bear population. The population in the valley outside the preserve may have decreased, but the increase within the preserve might still outweigh that decrease, indicating some bears came from outside the valley.
E
The bear population in the Abbimac Valley has remained about the same over the past eight years.
This undermines the assumption that the valley’s population increased during the eight years. (E) establishes that the increase in the preserve’s population comes entirely from movement of bears from other parts of the valley.

68 comments

If a wig has any handmade components, it is more expensive than one with none. Similarly, a made-to-measure wig ranges from medium-priced to expensive. Handmade foundations are never found on wigs that do not use human hair. Furthermore, any wig that contains human hair should be dry-cleaned. So all made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned.

Summary
The author concludes that all made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned.
This is based on the following:
Made-to-measure wigs range from medium-priced to expensive.
If a wig has a handmade foundation, then it uses human hair. (”Hand made foundations are never found on wigs that don’t use human hair.”)
Wigs that contain human hair should be dry-cleaned.

Missing Connection
The last two premises, together, establish that if a wig has a handmade foundation, then it should be dry-cleaned. So if we want to conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned, we want to show that made-to-measure wigs have a handmade foundation. How can we do that?
Well, the first premise tells us that made-to-measure wigs range from medium-priced to expensive. If we can show that “medium-priced to expensive” implies “handmade foundation,” that will show that made-to-measure wigs have a handmade foundation, which in turn will show that they should be dry-cleaned.

A
Any wig whose price falls in the medium-priced to expensive range has a handmade foundation.
Since we know made-to-measure wigs are in the medium-priced to expensive range, (A) establishes that these wigs have a handmade foundation. Combine that with the last two premises, and we can conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned.
B
If a wig’s foundation is handmade, then it is more expensive than one whose foundation is not handmade.
(B) doesn’t establish anything about made-to-measure wigs or wigs that are medium-priced to expensive. So we’d still have no way to conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned.
C
A wig that has any handmade components should be dry-cleaned.
(C) doesn’t establish anything about made-to-measure wigs or wigs that are medium-priced to expensive. So we’d still have no way to conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned.
D
If a wig’s foundation is handmade, then its price is at least in the medium range.
(D) doesn’t establish anything about made-to-measure wigs or wigs that are medium-priced to expensive. So we’d still have no way to conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry-cleaned. Although (D) shows that wigs with handmade foundations are at least medium-priced, this doesn’t imply that wigs that are medium-priced to expensive must have a handmade foundation.
E
Any wig that should be dry-cleaned has a foundation that is handmade.
We want to conclude that made-to-measure wigs should be dry cleaned. An answer that tells us what is true IF a wig should be dry-cleaned doesn’t establish that certain wigs should be dry-cleaned.

31 comments