Summarize Argument: Phenomenon-Hypothesis
The author concludes that a good way to get over one’s fear of an activity is to do that activity repeatedly. This is based on the fact that over half of people who have parachuted only once report being frightened by parachuting, but less than 1 percent of those who have parachute ten times or more report being frightened of it.
Identify and Describe Flaw
The author assumes that the reason so few people who parachute ten times or more report being frightened by parachuting is that repeated parachuting has reduced their fear. This overlooks the possibility that those people weren’t afraid to begin with. Their lack of fear might be what causes them to parachute many times.
A
takes for granted that the greater the number of dangerous activities one engages in the less one is frightened by any one of them
The argument doesn’t concern a “greater number of dangerous activities.” It’s about one’s fear of one activity and whether doing that one activity more can reduce one’s fear of that activity.
B
neglects to consider those people who have parachuted more than once but fewer than ten times
The statistic already shows that people who parachute many times report being less frightened than people who parachute only once. The flaw concerns the author’s causal assumption, not the lack of info about people who parachuted between one and ten times.
C
takes for granted that people do not know how frightening something is unless they have tried it
The argument doesn’t concern people’s awareness of how frightening something is. It’s about whether people are frightened of an activity and whether doing that activity more reduces fear. Knowledge of one’s level of fear is a separate issue.
D
fails to take into account the possibility that people would be better off if they did not do things that terrify them
Whether people would be better off is irrelevant. The argument concerns whether doing an activity more reduces fear of that activity. The author did not conclude that doing a feared activity is a good idea or that it should be done.
E
overlooks the possibility that most people who have parachuted many times did not find it frightening initially
This possibility, if true, presents an alternate explanation for the statistics cited. Perhaps people’s lack of fear is what allowed them to parachute ten times. This undermines the author’s hypothesis, which is that parachuting ten times is what reduced their fear.
"Surprising" Phenomenon
Why does reducing the price of domestic wine increase sales of imported wine?
Objective
Any hypothesis resolving this discrepancy must introduce a different economic effect or state a difference between wine and other products. It must explain why increasing the price of domestic wine increases sales for its competitor, imported wine—which is apparently contrary to general economic principle.
A
Economists’ studies of the prices of grocery items and their rates of sales rarely cover alcoholic beverages.
Economists believe that reducing the price of “any product” stimulates demand for it, not just grocery items. The author does not imply that demand for domestic wine is expected to increase because wine is considered a grocery item.
B
Few merchants of any kind have detailed knowledge of economic theories about the relationship between item prices and sales rates.
This refers to the knowledge of merchants, not economists. The author does not imply that merchants must be expecting higher demand in order for lowering prices to have that effect.
C
Consumers are generally willing to forgo purchasing other items they desire in order to purchase a superior wine.
This does not state that consumers perceive wines sold at higher prices to be superior. Without knowing whether consumers see imported or domestic wines as superior, this fails to explain the increased demand for imported wine.
D
Imported wines in all price ranges are comparable in quality to domestic wines that cost less.
This deepens the mystery. If imported wines are more expensive than domestic wines but of similar quality, then why did demand for them increase?
E
An increase in the demand for a consumer product is compatible with an increase in demand for a competing product.
This explains why the economic principle is not violated. Lower domestic wine prices caused demand for both types of wine to increase. This is consistent because the author never stated that demand for domestic wine decreased.